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How to buy in today’s market - Fundamental Analysis

Posted on 02 December 2008 by Kirtan Shah

Difficult as this economic climate appears, I want to stress that this is still a very good time to invest. The third quarter saw a correction morph into a bear market and panic. Steep stock market deterioration was concentrated in late September and October. Extreme volatility is reminiscent of typical bear market bottoming, forming the classic V-shaped market. Many stocks today are at their 52-week lows, many below listing or IPO price, valuations higher than the market price!

But there’s an important hitch - we need to be much more careful in our stock selections. As long as we remain prudent investors, you and I stand to see massive gains in the weeks and months ahead. This is one of best profit opportunities of our lifetime.

Everything today looks good for a buy but does that mean we buy anything? I have listed below four simple fundamentals that you need to look at when buying in these volatile markets.

The Best Measure: Return on Equity (ROE)

The foremost thing you need to do is zero in on a company with high ROE. This is a benchmark to find the efficiency of the company. This measure will actually tell you how much profit a company is making on the equity it has. ROE is a report card for a company’s management. We can’t always know what management is up to, but by analyzing a company’s ROE, it lets us know how prudent they’ve been with their shareholders’ money. Management should never forget exactly who it is they’re working for. An ROE number above 15% is good, and anything above 25% is outstanding.

Avoid Companies that Spend More than They Earn

Next to look for are companies with strong cash flows. Examine a company’s cash flow because it’s something that’s hard to manipulate. The simplest definition of cash flow is earnings plus depreciation. What cash flow tells us is how much cash is coming into the company from its business compared with the amount of cash going to fund its operations. The problem is that some companies generate a lot of cash, but they require even more to keep things going. Whenever we see that, we should know it’s not a good sign. By looking at cash flow, we can cut through the thorns and see how healthy a company really is.

Companies with Big Profit Margins

The third step is to find stocks with expanding operating margins. This is very important because it shows us a company that can grow its earnings faster than its sales. When a company has growing operating margins, it usually means the company has pricing power in its market. That’s crucial in this economic environment. More often than not, such a company can grow its profit margins because it has a dominant niche in its market.

Outperforming Other Stocks

The final step in spotting winning stocks is to find companies that are having their earnings estimates revised higher. Beating earnings expectations is great, but we also want to hear a company say that future earnings are going to be better than expected. Spotting earnings revisions is a great way to uncover value stocks before the crowd does.

I hope my readers would now look into these four fundamentals discussed above before buying or selling stocks.

Kirtan Shah, a Certified Financial Planner, is a partner at AmbestinQ Consultancy Services.

1 Comments For This Post

  1. Manisha Says:

    I just would like to know where was this principles when companies such as enron and major companies of the US are going for bail out. So IF it did not work in US what is the guarantee that it will work in India. I think it is the luck factor in equity market that works rather then the research.

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