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Mutual funds: Small investor option for a diverse portfolio

Posted on 11 November 2008 by Basha Shaikh

No doubt that investing in equity seems to be very attractive option for investment. Why it so? We hear many stories, some true, some fictitious, of people who have become millionaire overnight. But the fact is, earning money is not at all easy on the stock market. Let’s accept this simple fact that it is not everybody’s cup of tea. So, we have to be very objective about it.

It is well understood universally that a diversified portfolio is less risky and much safe than a concentrated portfolio.

In India, small-time investors usually have a very limited capital for investment. Therefore, it follows that it is a lot more difficult for this investor with limited capital to have a diversified portfolio. In other words it is not possible for small-time investors to invest directly in the market and to make their portfolio diverse.

So, how can small investors get the opportunity to make their portfolio diverse? The only option left is investing in mutual fund. Mutual funds offer a well-diversified portfolio even with just Rs 100.

A concentrated portfolio, also, could deliver high or low returns. This means that, again, it is against the small investors’ investment appetite normally. It would suit only selected expert investors with high net-worth.

One more thing to notice is that with limited capital it is difficult for small investors to buy shares with high prices like ICICI Bank, Infosys, Reliance, L&T, and other blue chip shares.
Again mutual funds seem to be the better route.
Let’s now discuss equity and mutual funds from a different perspective keeping in mind the common man’s objective.

Let us be honest as far as possible. Ask yourself the following Yes/No questions:

  • Reading balance sheet of the company as a fund manager might do
  • Identifying up-coming sectors
  • Knowledge about companies, market, economics, and politics as a well-experienced professional fund manager might have
  • Identifying the risk elements in an investment
  • Predicting the future of the market as per any given scenario

If you have all of the above capabilities, go on and make wealth! In most cases, however, the answers would be “No.” Most of us do not have time to learn all these aspects of investment. Even if we do, we may not be able to do it regularly. Mutual funds are well-equipped with fund managers to do all the above activities.
Let us just concentrate on our jobs and leave our wealth management to the pros.

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Straddle Strategy

Posted on 08 November 2008 by Hiral Thanawala

The equity markets were up with a bang. The bulls had a party and celebrations post Diwali festival. It is considered as a remarkable recovery from the bottom. Well, it seems difficult to talk about whether this bull party will last for a long time. Global economic issues have still not been resolved and how much of that it’s going to affect other emerging markets, including India, is difficult to predict. The markets are facing many negative news and higher volatility in the day-to-day sessions. It’s getting difficult for investors to take a position in these market conditions. This is where the straddle strategy will play a vital role for the investors to hedge the position and profit from it.

This strategy is built on the concept of call and put options. Let’s understand what these mean before going in-depth to understand straddle.

Call Options - A call option gives its holder the right to buy a specified number of shares of the underlying stock at a predetermined price (strike price) between the date of purchase and the option’s expiration date.

Example: An investor who bought an ABC December 1000 call option would have the right, but not the obligation, to buy 100 shares of ABC common stock at a cost of Rs. 1000 per share at any time before the option expires in December.

The right to purchase common stock at a fixed price becomes more valuable as the price of the underlying common stock increases in the bullish trend.

Put Options - A put gives the holder the right to sell a specified number of shares of the underlying common stock at a predetermined price (strike price) on or before the expiration date of the contract.

Example: An investor who bought an ABC December 1000 put option would have the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of ABC common stock at a cost of Rs. 1000 per share at any time before the option expires in December.

The right to sell common stock at a fixed price becomes more valuable as the price of the underlying common stock decreases in the bearish trend.

Now let’s understand how the straddle strategy operates for investors. Fundamentally, a straddle is the simultaneous purchase of a call and a put on the same stock, with the identical strike price (the price at which the holder can sell or buy from the writer of the option) and expiration month. Typically, the buyer of a straddle anticipates a substantial movement in a stock but is uncertain what the direction will be. Because the investor is betting on an extraordinary stock movement in this the volatile markets. The probability of profiting is good.

A straddle buyer risks losing only the amount of premium (the price that the buyer of an option pays and the writer of the option receives). The maximum loss occurs only if the price of the stock on the expiration date of the options is exactly equal to the strike price. Although it is difficult to lose the entire premium paid for the straddle, it also can be difficult to make a profit. Either the put or the call side of a straddle is almost certain to expire worthless. As, a result, the stock has to move substantially for a profit to be made. Considering the trend of last few trading sessions there were many intense moves for investor. Therefore, it’s considered one of the best strategies to bet on these volatile markets, where the swing in stock prices to different levels in multiple/one trading session gives the opportunity for investors to fill their bag full of profits.

Example:

An investor purchases both a put and a call on a stock, paying Rs. 250 for the call and Rs. 200 for the put. Therefore, the total premium cost would be Rs. 450. Suppose the underlying stock’s price is Rs. 3000 and the strike price of the options is Rs. 3000. If the price of the stock rises above Rs. 3450 or drops below Rs. 2550, the investor will make a profit. Only if the stock expires at a strike price of Rs. 3000 will the investor lose the entire investment. The investor loses only part of the investment at any other price between Rs. 2550 and Rs. 3450.

The investor earns a profit if the stock sells at a price exceeding Rs. 3450 or drops to less than Rs. 2550. If the stock rises to Rs. 3750 per share and the investor exercises the call at Rs. 3000, the investors profit is Rs. 300 (Rs. 750 - Rs. 450 premium). Alternatively, if the stock drops to Rs. 2150 per share and the investor exercises his/her put at Rs. 3000, the profit is Rs. 400 (Rs. 850 - Rs. 450 premium). Thus, the investor is assured of a profit only if the stock moves by more than Rs. 450 in either direction.

The above strategy and example were discussed considering equity markets. This strategy is also useful to hedge a position on commodities in commodity market.

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You and me!

Posted on 05 November 2008 by Anurag Sharma

It took $500 billion in asset write-downs to bring the more than $13 trillion-dollar American economy to nearly a grinding halt with a list of casualties that would have been the envy of any asset manager in happier times. Bear Stearns, Lehman Bothers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Merrill Lynch, and insurance big boy AIG. Naturally the American economy which lives on leverage (borrowing more than it earns) looks to be in a deep mess.

Since the economic liberalization in 1991, India has seen staggering GDP growth backed by relaxations in FII and FDI norms, catapulting the benchmark market index to 21000 levels in January 2008. The market is down nearly 50% and the mood remains apprehensive and pensive.
But despair is the time when true character is revealed, be it of any organization or individual - when pushed to the corner, its time for the champion boxer to take one more up his chin and still stand his ground.

Will India survive?

The point here is to know can there be a simple way for a small investor to instill confidence back on the street.

As markets across the globe are looking to pack their bags for a long time, in this entire mess one investor segment just might prove to be the saving grace: you and me. On 2nd April 2007, the BSE Sensex closed at 12455.37. on 31 March 2008 it stood at 15644.4, returning a cool 25.8%, year-on-year. RBI data for 2007-2008 suggested that only 10.5% of household savings found its way into the equity and debt markets amounting to Rs 77000 crore, the rest probably cooling its heels in the banks as currency or currency equivalents (Gold). This means that domestic households have matched the $15-17 billion brought in by FIIs for FY ‘08. Now with FIIs deciding to retreat and having already pulled out just over $9 billion from domestic markets since January ‘08, they would be rethinking about their equity allocation for India in the future. This makes way for a huge opportunity to Indian households who by increasing their share of investment in the domestic markets can hope to turn its tide as well as their own. As an individual investor, every incremental investment shall improve his/her long term (>1 year) returns. At the same time, incremental investment in gold would hedge him/her against any inflationary pressure and any unforeseen down turn.

50 million people in India are at present in the middle class category. This is expected to balloon to 583 million by 2025 according to a study by McKinsey & Co. This represents the real buying power. Even if we assume that these 50 million actually only save and their savings find their way into the banking system, imagine what a higher percentage of investment will do to the economy if they decide to flirt a bit more with the investments to savings ratio. We need to realize that FIIs are like mercenaries who will flee their camps first when the chips are down and that domestic investors are the real face of the investment community.

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Leverage: A double-edged sword

Posted on 05 November 2008 by Hiral Thanawala

The current scenario of equity, commodity and forex markets is very volatile. It’s extremely difficult for investors to speculate the direction where the market is heading. There are many investors on the global platform trading in the futures market. It is considered to be most risky and speculative of all the markets. Let’s go in little depth to understand the term futures market and its function before actually going to the concept of leverage.
Basically, a futures contract is an agreement between two parties that commits one party to sell a security or commodity to the other at a given price and on a specified future date. This makes it possible to transfer the risk from those who want to avoid it (hedgers) to those who are willing to accept it (speculators). Hedgers can be individuals or firms that make purchases and sales in the futures market solely for the purpose of establishing a price level months in advance for something they later intend to buy or sell in the cash market. Their sole purpose is to protect themselves against the risk of an unfavorable price change in the interim.

Example:
An individual enters into a futures contract to sell 100 shares of ABC Ltd. at Rs.1000 each after one month in the futures exchange. This contract protects the price he/she is intending to get for this stock in the period of one month.
With the basic plot of the futures market clear it will be easier to understand the concept of leverage in the futures market and why it is a double-edged sword. The leverage of futures trading results from the fact that only a relatively small amount of money (known as initial margin) is required to buy or sell a futures contract. For example, a deposit of only Rs.100,000 might enable an investor to buy a futures contract representing Rs.1,500,000 worth of a particular stock/commodity. The initial margin is typically 5 to 15 percent of the value of the underlying contract, although in some cases it is even more or less. The smaller the margin in relationship to the value of the futures contract, the greater will be the leverage and risk.
High leverage can produce large profits when compared to the initial margin if the speculator correctly anticipates the future price change. Alternatively, if prices move in the opposite direction from what was anticipated, the result would be large losses. Thus, the double-edged sword.

Another Example:
An investor anticipates rising stock prices and buys one December Nifty index futures contract (lot size: 100) at a time when the S&P Nifty is trading at 2800. The initial margin required is Rs.28000 (assuming 10% margin cost). The value of the Nifty futures contract is calculated by multiplying the current level of the S&P Nifty by 100 (the lot size) i.e. the contract value is Rs.280,000 (100 x 2800); each point change in the index represents Rs.100 gain or loss.
Therefore, an increase in the index from 2800 to 2850 would increase the investment (50 x Rs.100 per point) Rs.285,000 i.e. a profit of Rs.5,000. A decrease of S&P Nifty from 2800 to 2400 during a contract period in this volatile markets would wipe out the investment to (400 x Rs.100 per point) Rs.240,000 i.e. a loss of Rs.40,000.
Although, a futures contract provides exactly the same actual profit as owning or selling short the actual securities or commodities represented by the contract, the low initial margin magnifies the percentage profit or loss potential. So, it can be concluded that in this market, speculators must be prepared for the possibility of losing their investment in a single day. An investor who is not reconciled to that possibility should avoid this market altogether.

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Insurers to park funds in VCs

Posted on 05 November 2008 by Ushma Shah

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Personal_Finance/Insurance/Insurance_news/Insurers_set_to_park_funds_in_VC_firms/articleshow/3429548.cms

Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDA) gave the green signal to insurance companies to invest in venture capital funds (VCs). Investing in VCs will expose the insurance companies to a huge amount of risk as VCs are high-risk high-return. The insurance companies will have to work out which VC they should invest and how much. The objective of the VC in which they would be investing should be very clear as it would be the deciding factor on the investment returns. The things to be checked are solvency ratio, percentage share in the venture capital, exit clause, and the management track record.

With the world economy facing a recession and economic giant USA adopting the fetal position, the VC concept that has been the driving force of the dotcom boom, has burst. Result: Nightmare for VCs.

Insurance companies will have a large corpus to invest in VCs. In which case, they should have decision-making rights in the VC. This is important to protect the insurer’s insurance customers.

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Equities Investment - Do it now! (With a 3-5 year perspective)

Posted on 23 October 2008 by Kapil Mokashi

By now it’s a known fact that we are in midst of unprecedented global turmoil. India is surely not insulated from whatever is happening around the globe. To add to that we have our own local problems like high inflation, subdued IIP numbers, which in turn have posed a big threat to our GDP growth. Stock markets are bound to react to whatever is happening around the globe and there is no surprise that our own stock index has shaved off almost 50% from its peak much in line with other indexes around the world. Such is the retail investor psyche that these same buyers who were queuing up to buy at 21,000 odd levels now shudder at even the thought of investing in the market!

The fear is well warranted considering the uncertainty we are facing.

I don’t know where this will end or how much more downside we can eye from here. Not because I am ignorant but only because it should not matter for me as a long-term investor in the equity markets. Notwithstanding all the macro and micro gloomy data points together with the uncertainty hovering around, the fact remains that the current turmoil gives an excellent opportunity for an Investor to build a long-term portfolio in equity markets.

Yes, I do agree a lot will depend on the quality of stocks we pick in the portfolio. But here again, remember that investing is simple. It is only as complicated as you make it. Considering the fact that we are almost trading at 2-year lows on the Index, this is an excellent opportunity for first-time investors to build fresh exposure in the equity market. It surely doesn’t get better than this.

So, where does one start??

The index has shaved off more than 50% from its peak dragging with it all the heavy weight stocks.

In times like these it is always advisable to start building exposure in the markets through the frontline stocks for the following reasons:

  1. These are fundamentally good stocks, available at attractive valuations. Typically, during periods of panic, market players tend to over-do the concerns surrounding the stocks pushing the prices much below their intrinsic value.
  2. Whenever there is a reversal of trend in the markets, these stocks will be the first to bounce from their lows giving a sharp recovery

How can you take exposure to these stocks?
There are various ways in which you can start building exposure to these front liners:

  • Index Funds: Index funds (passively managed funds) from mutual funds could be a good option. These could be funds tracking a particular index (say Nifty or Sensex).
  • Diversified Equity Funds: One can have exposure to diversified equity fund schemes of mutual funds, where the exposure could be towards the blend of mid & large-cap funds as per the schemes’ objectives. But please make sure you check the top 20 holdings of the scheme you are planning to invest in, as your objective is to be a part of the frontline stocks.
  • Nifty BeES: Nifty BeES is the first ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) in India.

The investment objective of Nifty BeES is to provide investment returns that, closely correspond to the total returns of securities as represented by the S&P CNX Nifty. Typically value of Nifty BeES will be 1/10th value of the prevailing Nifty price (For example, if Nifty is currently trading at 3500, Nifty BeES could be available @ 350) and it can be bought and sold on the National Stock Exchange like a share. In short, you buy/sell the broad Indian market using just 1 scrip.

  • Direct Equities: You can even directly buy the stocks form the market in a staggered manner, provided you fully understand the nitty-gritty of investing in equities. If you don’t possess the requisite expertise, simply turn to a professional money manager.

Whatever may be your mode of investing make sure you do some serious investing at these levels. If you feel jittery to invest the entire chunk, start investing at least 30-40% of your investible surplus in equities. And remember always, that best of the investments are always made in the worst of the times.

Kapil Mokashi is an Associate Financial Planner, working with Sharekhan Ltd. as an equity advisor.

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Wake Up, O Regulator!

Posted on 22 October 2008 by Basha Shaikh

The full story is at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Personal_Finance/Mutual_Funds/Trail_fees_by_any_other_name_pinches_as_much/rssarticleshow/3299673.cms

The story is about MF houses charging illegal fees to their investors.
“In a bid to boost their profitability, several MF houses are now charging trail fees (even for direct investors) under the other expenses head, disguising it with names like miscellaneous marketing expenses or other operating charges,” says a financial planner, who is empanelled with several fund houses.
Why are the fund houses fooling the investor? This shows clearly that the MF houses are only looking at their own benefits. Why is the regulator silent on all these wicked strategies of mutual fund houses? Why is no action being taken? Why is SEBI not taking this seriously?
There will be people who might think that this is a small issue; but my dear friends, this is a very serious issue as the MF houses are eating up investors’ money. They are committing fraud as no one is stopping them. Not even the regulator! I would request all the people who read this to complain to SEBI about it.

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The 90/10 Strategy

Posted on 22 October 2008 by Hiral Thanawala

Today, the equity market has been discounted by almost 50% from its peak. Investors are bearish to enter in this market. In the current scenario Indian equity markets are reacting with global cues. So, any positive cue of stabilization in global markets will start showing uptrend in our markets too. To take the advantage of this uptrend with minimum risk exposure in these scenario investors should follow the 90/10 strategy which will keep them in the loop. Now, there might be few questions rising in the mind of investors such as, what is 90/10 strategy? How they will be benefiting with this strategy?
Basically, the 90/10 strategy involves purchasing calls on the same number of shares of stock that would have been purchased outright, then investing the difference in a fixed income security such as government bonds. The name of the strategy is derived from the most common proportion in which the investments are allocated: 90 percent in government bonds and 10 percent in index or stock call options. This strategy is particularly appropriate for an investor who is not interested to risk his/her capital by investing in the stock market but wishes to participate in the growth of the stock market with limited risk exposure. Interest on the government bonds covers part of the possible loss on the calls. This strategy permits the investor to benefit from favorable stock price movements while limiting the downside risk to the call premium less any interest earned. It is particularly effective approach in periods of high interest rates because of greater interest income.

Example:
The common stock of ABC sells at Rs. 2000 per share. The purchase of 100 shares will cost Rs. 200,000. Let’s also assume that this investor’s upper limit on investment is Rs. 200,000.
Now, let’s assume that the stock call option’s strike price is fixed at Rs. 2000 per share, with a premium of Rs 200 per share. Therefore, if the investor wants to buy the hundred shares it would cost him/her just Rs. 20000. This, in turn, would leave him/her Rs. 180,000 to be invested in something safer, such as government bonds.
Suppose the government bonds mature in six months and earn 6 percent interest. The Rs. 180,000 would earn interest of Rs. 5400 (Rs. 1,80,000 x 0.06 x 6/12). This interest reduces the investor’s cost of the call to Rs. 14600 (Rs. 20000 - Rs. 5400). The Rs. 14600 also represents the investors maximum risk exposure compared to the Rs. 200,000 cost if the 100 shares were purchased outright.
The beauty of this strategy is that although the risk is limited, the potential capital appreciation is not. Once the market price of ABC increases beyond the strike price, the call buyer could realize the same rupee appreciation at expiration as that of an investor who owns 100 shares of the common stock. Therefore, this strategy limits risk to the net cost of the call while still enabling investors to realize capital appreciation.

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Mary, quite contrary, how does your money grow?

Posted on 10 October 2008 by Naveen Fernandes

Microsoft Excel is a wonderful tool. Even a tech dummy like me recognizes this.
In the hands of a semi-educated financial planner/advisor the tool is lethal.
At the turn of the millennium, “analysts” used Excel to extol Infosys and its growth at over 100% compounded annually. I am an unabashed Infy fan, but I could not imagine Infosys being bigger than the rest of India, which it would have been at that growth rate. Logic and economics combined to tell me that that would be impossible. I now have no Infosys on my portfolio, but will surely buy when I like the price.
Planners use their financial calculators and Excel to drag columns and rows to tell you what you will earn, need at retirement, how much you can spend and the like. The parameters are extrapolated to show a fixed rate of increments, returns and inflation. This is stupid, because life and economics has little respect for the Excel drag function. Inflation and deflation can follow each other before one realizes it. One does not die as one plans, or hopes. Real life takes a break from Excel!
Magazines and papers are full of advice for government employees about to receive their increments and arrears. Of all the template material that masquerades as the best thing to do, I find the home loan pre-payment suggestion hardest to digest.

Should you pre-pay your home loan?

As I mentioned, a popular bit of advice I read on many papers and a few magazines is on handling your bonus and increments. They ask you to use most of the money to pre-pay your mortgage (home loan), considering the high and rising interest rates.
Let me use a personal and very real example - my mortgage has risen from 7.5% to 13.25% (mine is the costliest bank lender). This is terrifying. Still, if I ignored the 80C benefit on payment of the loan principal (I have nothing left of the Rs. 1 lakh after Life Insurance premia and PPF), my cost on the loan is 8.75% considering the tax at 33.99% being the top of the bracket, inclusive of surcharge and cess. The will be a lot higher for those who avail of the 80C on home loan EMIs paid and lower for those in a lower tax bracket. The principle does not change under either of these circumstances. My surplus invested in a 375-day FMP during March at 10.25% would be over 10% post-tax in the growth option, considering double indexation. The 6 month FMP I invested in last week at 11.75% will fetch me 10.08% post tax in the dividend option.
Simple commonsense, which makes up most economics, tells me that cash is a nice thing to have - I might use the FMP maturity or any surplus in more attractive investments, if I can get them, while a prepaid home loan is cash permanently with the bank. Vitally at times of turmoil and uncertainty it is good to increase the amount of liquidity one has for contingencies
I also make more money in the process; every Rs. 1 lakh not prepaid fetching me an annual surplus of at least Rs. 1,250.

Naveen Fernandes is a Certified Financial Planner and Vice-president, Orbis Financial Corporation Ltd, Mumbai. Orbis Financial is a SEBI-approved custodian.

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FMP - True saviors

Posted on 01 October 2008 by Nirav Shah

Markets have really choppy for quite some time now. The largest of the investment banks across the globe are shutting down or writing off huge losses. Recently I got an SMS from one of my friends on analysis of the balance sheets of various investment banks globally:

There is nothing left on the right hand side and nothing right on the left hand side of the balance sheet of investment banks.

At this point of time, the biggest question for you as an investor is to what to do with your savings. Put it in to the equity markets where you not sure if you can ever see your money back or search for some other alternatives to park your surplus funds. Banks are giving out good returns of around 9 to 10 per cent annually for fixed deposits (FDs). The returns offered by them are completely risk-free. But the biggest problem they face is tax deductions. Returns on FDs are subject to tax deduction of 33.66 per cent at source. So effectively a return of 10 per cent would gradually come down to 6.63 per cent. Looking at the current inflation numbers which are not willing to come below double digits, a return of 6.63 per cent is nothing but eroding wealth in long term.

At this point of time Fixed Maturity Plans (FMP) have come as true saviors. FMPs are very similar to FDs in structure. The only major difference in the structure of FMPs and FDs is that in case of FDs the returns are guaranteed, but in case of FMPs, the returns are indicative.

FMPs usually invest in certificate of deposits (CDs), commercial paper (CPs), money market instruments, corporate bonds and even in bank deposits. The tenure of the FMPs can vary from 30 days to 3 years. Depending on the tenure of the scheme, the fund manager invests the money collected in to a mix of all the instruments mentioned above. The expense ratio for the same is also quite low which varies from 0.25 per cent to 1 per cent. The indicative yield is generally, the yield minus the expense ratio.

Generally, the fund house has a specified amount which it looks to collect during the new fund offer (NFO) of the FMP which is open for generally 2 to 3 days. The fund house ties up with many borrowers informally before the scheme opens. Based on the interest rates paid to them by the borrowers they calculate the indicative yields.

The main difference other than structure of the products comes on the tax treatment of FMPs. In the dividend option, investors have to bear the Dividend Distribution Tax which is 14.025 per cent in case of individuals and Hindu Undivided Family, and 22.44 per cent for corporate customers. In the growth option, the returns earned are treated as capital gains considered short-term if less than one year and long-term if the tenure is more than one year. In case of short-term capital gains, the interest income is added to your income and taxed at the marginal rate of tax.

For long-term capital gains, the tax liability is calculated using two methods, with and without indexation. Indexation is a technique where inflation doesn’t erode the real value of the investments. This is generally done to maintain the purchasing power parity of investors. Due to the indexation benefit on FMPs, they manage to give more tax efficient returns compared to FDs. For example, if the return on FMP is 10 per cent for a year. Then the post-tax return for the same would not be less than 8 percent considering the effect of indexation. Even without taking the benefit of indexation, the returns would be in a range of 7.5 to 7.6 per cent which is fairly higher than what is offered by FDs.

These schemes are not advertised heavily as the brokerage is too low. Thus, keeping track of new fund offers of FMPs is really a tough job. You need to really be after the brokers for information on open FMPs in the markets or keep track of them on the Internet. However, at any given time, there are many FMPs open with varying maturity. So searching out an FMP for a desirable tenure is not that a tough job. And looking at the kind of return, the FMPs are worth that effort.

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Disclaimer

The Apnapaisa Blog specifically disclaims any responsibility for any loss, actual or consequential, caused due to any decisions taken on the basis of any material appearing on the blog. Please consult your personal finance advisor, insurance agent, or broker before taking any decision to buy any financial product.