In my last article I had mentioned that there are several methods, or styles, to investing profitably in the equity markets.
Let me start with suggesting that you, the potential investor, spend some time analysing your investments. If one were to assume that your money is indeed “hard earned”, would it not be unfortunate if is easily lost?
Most professional advisors compare their performance to benchmarks, which are indices. For example, if a fund generated returns of 20%, while its benchmark’s returns were 15%, this “outperformance” of the index by 5% is called an ‘Alpha’. This is a good measure to evaluate fund performance, provided the benchmark is reliable. If reliable, it would be a good measure to evaluate even personal portfolios returns.
The BSE Sensitivity Index of 30 shares is the most popular Indian stock market index. If one were to track this over 5 year periods, starting in 1992 (this is the year of the infamous Harshad Mehta boom, which is a relevant beginning simply because this is the first time there was retail participation in the capital markets), we would find that pre-2003 (the start of the latest boom), the index returned less than bank FDs. Even if we go from 1992 to the current date, the index returns are disappointing. This should indicate that equities are a poor long term investment, but are actually among the best options!
In fact, a well diversified portfolio, built over time and given a few years, at reasonable valuations (PE of close to 10, certainly lower than the Sensex’s long term average of 14 times) will outperform the benchmark or almost any other investment. The great Warren Buffet, however, considers that “wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing”. If you know, and you need to know, why you make an investment, you should also have guts to invest plenty in it. Again, quoting Mr. Buffet, “Why not invest your assets in the companies you really like? As Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.””
Diversification or concentration of portfolios can be achieved through investments in mutual funds. Concentration is through sectoral or thematic funds. Concentration is good only if you are an expert and can time your entry and, more importantly, your exits. Avoid being carried away by the noise. Most fund managers consider themselves to be God’s Greatest Gift to Investments (GGGI) in a bull market. However, when they crash with the markets they are quick to point to outperformance, if any, on the index, i.e. “The index has fallen 30%, but I have been brilliant and have lost only 25% of your money”. I have not met any investor who hands out money to be lost, whatever the market conditions. My advice is to ignore the froth from the fund managers, or brokers. If you are convinced the market is cheap, put in all your money. In an uncertain market do an SIP. But when the market seems overvalued sell. (By the way, have you ever heard a fund manager advice you to sell, or redeem your units in a bull market?) A crash always follows a euphoric bubble. Cash is supreme in bad times. It is a good feeling, and also very profitable to buy when the market is down 70%!!
Is this a good time to invest? Yes and no. An important lesson from Joseph Kennedy, almost a century old, is to sell when the shoe-shine boy gives stock tips. I believe this is true today. When the taxi driver is thrilled to take you to the share bazaar and asks for stock tips en route, the stranger at the party gives you sure shot stock bets and the daily newspaper has headlines of the local housewives club betting their grocery money on stocks – GET OUT. This is the best signal to sell your shares.
And buying? This would be when that party animal with best buys stops partying, the Big Bull has jumped off the 13th Floor and there is a funereal feeling at Dalal Street. Buy when the mention of a good company has people grit their teeth and give you dirty looks. And, of course, the index has a low, mouth watering PE!
One of my own gurus told me never to confuse the market with stocks. “The market is irrelevant”, he said, “buy the right stocks and you will always make money.” If you have his stock picking skills, which I do not, this article is not for you. If you are one of the simple folk, hoping to beat inflation and make a little money on your savings, the market at over 18 PE all this week (18.80 on Nifty on September 4, 2008) remains expensive. Look then for gems that might become multi-baggers.
Otherwise hang on to your precious cash. A better day to buy will dawn, when PEs are closer to 10 than 20. Get into SIP mode then. Market corrections can be both deep and long. Losing opportunity (interest cost of your money) is about as unfortunate as losing capital.
Naveen Fernandes is a Certified Financial Planner and Vice-president, Orbis Financial Corporation Ltd, Mumbai. Orbis Financial is a SEBI-approved custodian.
